Abstract: The 2018-2020 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) was the first outbreak that occurred in a tumultuous, active conflict and war eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) characterized by the violence, destruction of Ebola Treatment Centres and escape of patients from hospitals. Likewise, the 2014-2016 West Africa EVD came with an unprecedented challenge in that the outbreak simultaneously arose in three different countries (viz. Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone) to and from which migrations and travels of people by road and air were considerable.
For the 2018-2020 outbreak, we develop a Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR)-type model in which the associated disruptive events and the indirect/slow transmission through the contaminated environment are incorporated. Due to the challenge mentioned above for the 2014-2016 EVD outbreak, we construct for it a metapopulation model in each patch of which, we consider an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) model modified by adding the disease induced deceased, the Isolated and the Quarantine compartments to account, among others, for travellers who undergo the exit screening intervention at the borders, as recommended by the World Health Organization.
For the two models, our focus is three-fold. We compute the basic reproduction numbers and explicit thresholds, thanks to which the existence and the local/global asymptotic stability (LAS/GAS) of the disease-free, endemic and boundary equilibria (DFE, EE & BE) are investigated. Next, we design nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) schemes that replicate these qualitative properties of the continuous models. Finally, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis and use the real data from the affected regions to provide numerical simulations and undertake a statistical data analytics study, which supports the theory. It is shown that the key parameters, which measure the impact of travels and war, significantly influence the increase in the numbers of infected and deaths individuals of the 2014-2016 and 2018-2020 EVD outbreaks, respectively.